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The easing of tensions in Ukraine will offer little respite to Russia as the lowest oil prices in more than two years threaten to tilt the $2 trillion economy toward recession, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Russia needs Urals, its main export crude blend, to trade at $100 per barrel or higher to avoid a recession, according to 58 percent of respondents in a survey of 19 economists. Three years ago, the Economy Ministry estimated that only a plunge of oil prices to $60 would halt Russia's expansion.A $1 drop in the price of oil deprives the budget of about 80 billion rubles ($2.1 billion) in revenue, according to Oreshkin, while a 1 ruble increase in the dollar's exchange rate boosts income by about 200 billion rubles.The probability of a recession within the next year decreased to 60 percent from 65 percent last month, according to the median estimate of 27 economists.
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