This June 19, 2015 photo shows the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
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A wide range of short-term interest rates, which tend to be the most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, have been quietly grinding higher for weeks, or in some cases much longer. Several have even surpassed their levels from two years ago during the bond market's "taper tantrum," when prices tanked and yields shot up as the Fed pondered whether to halt its massive asset-purchase program.To that end, some measures of Fed rate expectations suggest almost no probability the central bank will move before December. Fed fund futures prices reflect a zero percent chance of a rate hike in September, a 37 percent chance in October and a 64 percent chance in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch.The federal funds effective rate, which the Fed seeks to control, has averaged 0.14 percent for three days in a row, matching its highest level since May 2013 .A type of interest rate swap designed to anticipate the Fed policy rate around the time of its next meeting in September now reflects a rate around 2 basis points above the top of the Fed's current target range.The interest rate on three-month T-bills that mature on Sept. 17, when the Fed releases its next policy meeting statement, rose to almost 7 basis points Thursday, the highest level in nearly 14 months.
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