A gasoline truck arrives to refill its tank at a gasoline distribution terminal in San Diego, California January 7, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Blake
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Plunging oil prices are giving a bump to consumer and business spending around the world – just not enough to increase global growth forecasts.The median estimate for 2015 world expansion from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News has been unchanged since October, when it fell to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent.JPMorgan is a case in point: It estimates that sustained $60-a-barrel crude oil prices will add 0.5 percent to global gross domestic product, yet its Jan. 2 world expansion forecast of 2.9 percent for 2015 is down from a 3.3 percent estimate in July.The International Monetary Fund estimates that declining oil prices will increase global output by a range of 0.3 percent to 0.7 percent this year by boosting household incomes and lowering input costs for businesses, according to a blog post last month by chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Rabah Arezki, the head of the fund's commodities research.The fund's last forecast in October was for global expansion of 3.8 percent this year, down from a 4 percent estimate given in July.
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