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Forward Eonia bank-to-bank rates – the best gauge – dated for the ECB meeting on March 8 next year stand at around minus 0.34 percent, two basis points above the Eonia spot rate of minus 0.36 percent. Such a gap indicates markets are pricing in just a 20 percent chance of a 10 basis point hike in the ECB's minus 0.40 percent deposit rate by next March.As a result, markets moved swiftly in March to fully price in a rate hike in the first quarter of 2018 and as much as an 80 percent chance of a rate rise in December, when the ECB's asset-purchase scheme is scheduled to end.A long-term gauge of eurozone inflation expectations tracked by the ECB, the five-year, five-year breakeven forward, has fallen in recent weeks to stand at around 1.60 percent – below the ECB's near 2 percent target.
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