Trader John Panin, center, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
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On Wall Street, the conventional wisdom is that once the Federal Reserve finally starts to whittle down its crisis-era debt investments, U.S. Treasury yields will have nowhere to go but up.During each of the Fed's quantitative-easing cycles, yields rose when the central bank was buying and then fell after it stopped. The lesson, investors say, is that what really matters to the bond market isn't so much what the Fed is doing, but what the policy changes mean for the U.S. economy in the months and years ahead.While the Fed has lifted interest rates three times since December, 10-year yields have fallen as expectations for faster inflation and fiscal stimulus from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump proved to be short-lived.Indeed, in the most recent Bloomberg survey this month, Wall Street forecasters saw 10-year yields reaching 2.48 percent by year-end before gradually rising to exceed 3 percent in 2019 .
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