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President Donald Trump's zeal for tariffs has yet to derail the global economic outlook.The worry remains that Trump may just be getting started. If the president delivers on all his tariff threats, $475 billion in goods would be affected, and core inflation would speed up by about 15 basis points, according to Goldman. Some economists are stopping short of using the term "trade war". Analysts at ING Bank NV are calling the current situation a "cold" trade conflict with a muted economic impact.Two things need to happen for hostilities to reach the level of a global trade war, ING analysts Viraj Patel and Raoul Leering said in a research note. The economic damage may also broaden if fears of a trade war cause a sharp sell-off in risk assets, causing financial conditions to tighten.Under ING's worst-case scenario, which it calls "all-out trade war," the U.S. economy would take the biggest hit, with output dropping by 2 percent over two years.
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