An Aramco employee walks near an oil tank at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah/File Photo
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OPEC and its friends can be divided up in many ways, but the most useful in the current environment is the "haves" and the "have-nots".Russia, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula would need to up their output by 875,000 barrels a day over the next six months just to offset expected declines from Iran and Venezuela and prevent the anticipated second-half shortfall from growing.Russia's Rosneft has been testing capacity to bring new production into use and believes it can add 100,000 barrels "in just a few days," according to analysts at Aton LLC. Gazprom PJSC's oil unit estimates the country has about 500,000 barrels a day of spare production capacity.Saudi Arabia says it has around 1.5 million barrels a day of spare capacity that could be brought into operation within 90 days – but it has never tried to sustain production at that level.In the end, the "have-nots" may be powerless to prevent Saudi Arabia and Russia from raising production without them.
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