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Oil markets have so far reacted to President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal without either enthusiasm or panic – without even much apparent interest.Fortunately, the Obama-era sanctions that Trump has moved to reimpose have some lesser-known safety valves should oil markets later overheat as a result of the Iran decision.It also suggests that the market sees November – when sanctions on those importing Iranian oil will come into effect – as far away.Perhaps the most interesting reason for the relative calm since Trump's announcement may be that the market has finally grown confident about U.S. oil production from shale and the likelihood that higher global oil prices will prompt greater domestic production relatively quickly.First, while oil markets may have already priced in a U.S. withdrawal from the Iran deal, they seem unlikely to have done the same for a further decline in oil exports from Venezuela.Finally, the risks to oil markets from Trump's decision are not simply in removing Iranian exports from the market.
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