BEIRUT: Citigroup projected economic growth in Lebanon at 2.8 percent in 2011 compared to 6 percent in 2010 and relative to a growth of 5.1 percent in the Middle East & Africa region, 6 percent in emerging economies and 3.1 percent for the world economy for this year.

It also forecast Lebanon’s real GDP growth at 3.5 percent in 2012 compared to 5.2 percent in the ME&A region, 5.8 percent in emerging economies, and 3.2 percent for the world economy, as reported by Lebanon This Week, the economic publication of the Byblos Bank Group.

Lebanon’s projected growth rate in 2011 would make it the fourth-slowest-growing economy in the ME&A region ahead of only the UAE at 2.2 percent, Egypt at 1.4 percent and Bahrain at 1 percent; while it would make it the seventh slowest-growing economy among 54 emerging countries, ahead of the UAE, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Egypt and Bahrain.

Also, Lebanon would be one of nine in the ME&A region and among 29 emerging economies to expand at a slower pace than in 2010.

Further, Citigroup forecast the inflation rate in Lebanon at 3.4 percent this year, fourth lowest in the region, relative to 4 percent in 2010 and compared to an inflation rate of 5.9 percent for the ME&A region and 6.4 percent for emerging economies. It also expected inflation to reach 4 percent in 2012 compared to 6.3 percent in the ME&A region and 5.7 percent in emerging economies.

In parallel, it projected Lebanon’s current account deficit at 16.7 percent of GDP in 2011, up from a deficit of 13 percent of GDP in 2010 and compared to surpluses of 5 percent of GDP for the ME&A region and 1.7 percent of GDP for emerging economies for this year. Lebanon’s account balance would post the widest deficit this year among the 54 emerging market economies included in Citigroup’s universe.

Citigroup has also expected Lebanon’s current account deficit to narrow to 11.7 percent of GDP in 2012, still the widest in emerging markets, compared to surpluses of 4.5 percent of GDP for the ME&A region and 1.2 percent of GDP for emerging economies.

Moreover, it forecast Lebanon’s fiscal deficit to widen to 10.8 percent of GDP this year from 7.4 percent of GDP last year, compared to deficits of 0.5 percent for the ME&A region and 2.3 percent of GDP for emerging economies. The deficit would be considered the widest among the emerging economies covered by the forecasts. It also expected the country’s fiscal deficit to reach 8.9 percent of GDP in 2012 relative to deficits of 0.4 percent and 2.2 percent for the ME&A region and emerging economies, respectively.

In parallel, Standard Chartered Bank projected Lebanon’s real GDP growth at 3 percent in 2011 and 5 percent in 2012 compared to growth of 7.5 percent in 2010. Lebanon’s projected growth rate in 2011 would make it the third-slowest growing economy in the Middle East and North Africa region, ahead of only Egypt at 1.4 percent and Tunisia at -0.5 percent.

It forecast Lebanon’s inflation rate to reach 6 percent in 2011 and 5.4 percent in 2012 compared to 5 percent in 2010. Lebanon’s inflation rate this year is expected to be the fourth highest in the MENA region behind Turkey at 6.7 percent, Saudi Arabia at 7 percent and Egypt at 12.2 percent.

Further, it expected Lebanon’s current account deficit to narrow down to 15 percent of GDP in 2011 and 14.5 percent of GDP in 2012 from a deficit of 16 percent of GDP in 2010.