BEIRUT: The World Bank indicated that data inconsistency has prevented it from providing a forecast of remittance inflows to Lebanon for 2011 and has led it to review its estimate for 2010.
The World Bank made these findings in its semi-annual update on remittance inflows to developing economies.
The most recently available credible data on remittance inflows to Lebanon is for 2009, where such flows totaled $7.6 billion, as reported by Lebanon This Week, the economic publication of the Byblos Bank Group.
The World Bank said it is facing issues with consistency of definitions and coverage of migrant remittances.
It added that preliminary Balance of Payments data on workers’ remittance flows to Lebanon report a significant decline in 2010, but statements by officials at the Central Bank of Lebanon suggest that these flows have remained relatively resilient.
The World Bank decided, in the absence of reliable information, to keep remittance flows to Lebanon for 2010 and 2011 at the same level as in 2009.
It noted that the International Monetary Fund has recently concluded an Article IV consultation mission to Lebanon, and that it is waiting for clarification about the balance of payments data.
The World Bank stated that remittance data at the national level is of relatively poor quality in many countries and remittance inflows often include items other than those sent by migrants, such as small value trade and payments transactions, and even transfers to non-government organizations and embassies in some cases. It stressed on the urgent need to improve data on remittances at the national and bilateral corridor levels.
Last May, the World Bank revised upward its estimate for expatriates’ remittances inflows to Lebanon to $8.4 billion in 2010 from a forecast of $8.2 bln in November 2010, constituting a year-on-year increase of 11.3 percent.
As a result, Lebanon posted the second fastest growth rate in remittances among the 10 largest recipients in developing economies in 2010.
However, these estimates are no longer valid following the bank’s concern about the quality and consistency of available data. It said the remittance inflows estimate released in May 2011 was based on the available information at that time. It added that it has received new information since then and that it is trying to clarify data collection methodology and the coverage of remittance inflows to Lebanon.
The World Bank said that it, along with the IMF, the OECD and Eurostat, has worked with central banks and national statistical offices to introduce new definitions of “Personal Remittances” in the sixth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payment Manual.
It noted, however, that some countries still compile remittances data using the fourth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, which can result in significant distortions of inflows. It is not clear if local authorities have been involved in these consultations.
Lebanon was the 14th-largest recipient of remittances globally, the eighth-largest recipient among developing economies and the largest in the MENA region in 2009.
It ranked ahead of Egypt and Indonesia, and behind Pakistan and Nigeria among developing countries. Further, Lebanon was the second-largest recipient of remittances among 43 Upper Middle Income Countries. It ranked ahead of Russia, Romania and Brazil, and came only behind Mexico in this income category.
Remittances inflows to Lebanon accounted for 1.8 percent of the global remittance flows, 2.5 percent of flows to developing economies, 21.6 percent of inflows to Arab countries, and 9.8 percent of remittance inflows to UMICs in 2009.
Lebanon became the largest recipient of remittances in the Arab world in 2009 in nominal terms, relative to its GDP and on a per-capita basis.