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Lebanon economy rebounds in Aug., indicators show
Source: Banque du Liban, Economena Analytics
Source: Banque du Liban, Economena Analytics

BEIRUT: Economic indicators released Friday showed the Lebanese economy is strongly rebounding from its downturn in the early months of the year.

Arrivals at Beirut International Airport rose 1.33 percent year-on-year to 1.87 million in the first eight months of 2011, including a massive 23 percent rise in August arrivals to 261,866 arrivals, signalling a turnaround following seven months of slow airport activity. Similarly, the coincident indicator, a measure of economic activity in the country, rose 3.68 percent year-on-year to 236.7 points in August, although still 8 percent lower compared to July. However, the indicator is historically lower during the summer months.

Economic activity also appears to have picked up well before August. According to the second quarter business survey, more managers from virtually all sectors of the economy reported an improvement in activity compared to the first quarter of the year, although business remained sluggish when compared to the same period in 2010.

In particular, the difference between those managers estimating that there has been an improvement in sales volumes, and those reporting a decline shrunk to -4 percent in the second quarter, up from an all-time low of -27 percent in the first three months.

Trade activity proved resilient to regional events as Lebanese exports spiked 20 percent year-over-year to $372.9 million in August, following a 38 percent leap in July exports. In total, exports rose 6.6 percent in the first eight months of the year, slightly outpacing the 6.3 percent growth in imports, and leading to an expansion of 6.2 percent in the country’s trade deficit to $9.72 billion by the end of August.

Customs receipts, a significant revenue source for the government, fell only 7.2 percent year-on-year to $117 million in August, compared to average drops of 22 percent in the previous seven months.

Although retail, trade, and tourism appeared to weather the impact of the Arab uprisings and domestic political turbulence, data showed the construction sector is struggling.

Construction permits, an indicator of future construction activity in the country, were 29 percent lower in August 2011, at 1.14 million, in comparison with August 2010.

In the first eight months, permits fell 7.3 percent year-on-year, highlighting the severity of the real estate market downturn in Lebanon, but boding well for future prices as developers cut back new supply.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on October 15, 2011, on page 4.
This article was amended on Monday, October 17 2011
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Lebanesse economy / Lebanon / Economics
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Comments  
Nassib Ghobril October 15, 2011 02:07 PM

I am not sure what economy the writer is talking about. A slight rise in some indicators in August does not reflect any fundamental change in trends. This article looks like a marketing piece rather than an objective economic analysis.

Dr Warwick Knowles October 18, 2011 01:14 PM
I agree with you Nassib about this being a marketing piece rather than serious economic analysis. If you look at the coincident indicator in August it actually recorded its biggest month on month fall for over a year to reach its lowest level for since September 2010. Furthermore, arrivals at the Beirut airposrt are hardly a reliable indicator of economic activity. My reading is that the economic growth is slowing rather than growing.
non-economist October 20, 2011 09:37 AM

Interesting. Mr. Ghobril is correct. A slight rise in some indicators does not reflect a change in trends, but indicators in August do apparently show August was slightly better in some indicators than previous months and previous Augusts in previous years. As the poor writer mentions, this does not apply to the construction sector.

I was interested in this coincident indicator thing, so I went back and checked it and here's what it shows form a mathematical point of view:

1. Every year in the past 4 years, the coincident indicator is at its lowest in August since September the previous year, so the indicator is at its bottom in August every year in the past four years.

2. The 7.93% drop compared to July (that Dr Knowles is referring to) is lower than the 9.37% drop in August 2010.

2. The increase of 3.68% year-over-year in August 2011 is higher than the increase of 3.49% year-over-year in August 2010 and we all know about the "great leap forward" in 2009/2010.

I think cyclicality plays a big role in the coincident indicator so it's not easy to interpret it. That's why looking at a wide range of indicators in addition to actually feeling the market is important.

The economy is not in its best shape right now, but August deserves the credit.

Finally, I don't get the feeling the writer is doing any economic analysis nor marketing. It's just a good descriptive piece.

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