BEIRUT: Economic indicators released Friday showed the Lebanese economy is strongly rebounding from its downturn in the early months of the year.
Arrivals at Beirut International Airport rose 1.33 percent year-on-year to 1.87 million in the first eight months of 2011, including a massive 23 percent rise in August arrivals to 261,866 arrivals, signalling a turnaround following seven months of slow airport activity. Similarly, the coincident indicator, a measure of economic activity in the country, rose 3.68 percent year-on-year to 236.7 points in August, although still 8 percent lower compared to July. However, the indicator is historically lower during the summer months.
Economic activity also appears to have picked up well before August. According to the second quarter business survey, more managers from virtually all sectors of the economy reported an improvement in activity compared to the first quarter of the year, although business remained sluggish when compared to the same period in 2010.
In particular, the difference between those managers estimating that there has been an improvement in sales volumes, and those reporting a decline shrunk to -4 percent in the second quarter, up from an all-time low of -27 percent in the first three months.
Trade activity proved resilient to regional events as Lebanese exports spiked 20 percent year-over-year to $372.9 million in August, following a 38 percent leap in July exports. In total, exports rose 6.6 percent in the first eight months of the year, slightly outpacing the 6.3 percent growth in imports, and leading to an expansion of 6.2 percent in the country’s trade deficit to $9.72 billion by the end of August.
Customs receipts, a significant revenue source for the government, fell only 7.2 percent year-on-year to $117 million in August, compared to average drops of 22 percent in the previous seven months.
Although retail, trade, and tourism appeared to weather the impact of the Arab uprisings and domestic political turbulence, data showed the construction sector is struggling.
Construction permits, an indicator of future construction activity in the country, were 29 percent lower in August 2011, at 1.14 million, in comparison with August 2010.
In the first eight months, permits fell 7.3 percent year-on-year, highlighting the severity of the real estate market downturn in Lebanon, but boding well for future prices as developers cut back new supply.