BEIRUT: The World Bank estimated Lebanon’s external financing needs at 35.1 percent of GDP in 2012, or $15 billion, constituting the highest external funding requirements among developing countries this year.

It defined external financing needs as the scheduled payments on short- and longer-term debt to private creditors, plus the current account deficit relative to GDP in 2011 times the projected nominal GDP for 2012.

The International Monetary Fund estimates Lebanon’s GDP at $41.5 billion in 2011 and $45 billion in 2012 if it achieves 3.5 percent growth.

Lebanon’s external financing needs for the public and private sector is estimated at $15 billion.

The World Bank said Lebanon is set to post the highest current account deficit this year among developing economies and the third-highest level of debt repayment in the developing world, as reported by Lebanon This Week, the economic publication of the Byblos Bank Group.

It forecast Lebanon’s current account deficit at 20.6 percent of GDP, distantly followed by Nicaragua at 16.3 percent of GDP and Lao at 14 percent of GDP. It also estimated Lebanon’s debt payments at 14.5 percent of GDP in 2012, behind only Bulgaria at 18.6 percent of GDP and Latvia at 17.2 percent of GDP.

It said that Lebanon was one of only 27 developing countries that had fiscal deficits in excess of 5 percent of GDP in 2011, and one of just 14 developing economies with a gross debt level in excess of 75 percent of GDP last year.

But it noted that Lebanon, along with Egypt and Eritrea, are the only three developing countries that posted both a fiscal deficit above 5 percent of GDP and a gross debt-to-GDP ratio that exceeded 75 percent of GDP in 2011.

It warned that countries with high-levels of indebtedness would be particularly vulnerable to a tightening of international credit conditions this year. It said Lebanon could be exposed to this channel because of its relatively high external financing needs, especially its high level of short- and maturing long-term debt.

Nicaragua and Albania have the second- and third-highest levels of external financing needs this year at 22 percent of GDP and 21.3 percent of GDP, respectively.

Regionally, Jordan’s external financing needs are equivalent to 12.5 percent of GDP and those of Tunisia at 10.2 percent of GDP.

In parallel, the World Bank estimated foreign direct investment in Lebanon at $3.96 billion in 2011, constituting a decline of 20.5 percent from $4.98 billion in 2010, and compared to $4.8 billion in 2009.

Total FDI to Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Lebanon and Morocco regressed by 39.7 percent to $9.56 billion in 2011. FDI to Lebanon accounted for 41.4 percent of aggregate FDI to these countries last year, relative to 31.4 percent in 2010 and posting the largest share relative to the second highest share in 2010.

Lebanon was followed by Egypt with a share of 23.2 percent in 2011, Jordan with 12.1 percent, Tunisia with 11.7 percent and Morocco with 11.4 percent. Furthermore, FDI in Lebanon was equivalent to 9.6 percent of the country’s GDP last year, compared to 12.7 percent of GDP in 2010, posting the highest level relative to GDP among the covered economies.

It was followed by Jordan with 4.1 percent of GDP in 2011, Tunisia with 2.3 percent of GDP, Morocco with 1.1 percent of GDP and Egypt with 1 percent of GDP last year.