BEIRUT: Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.) growth levels in Lebanon will drop to 5.6 percent in 2011 from 6.7 percent in 2010, said chief economic analyst at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia Simon Neaime Tuesday.

G.D.P. growth is expected to decline to a further 5.4 percent in 2012.

Neaime indicated that the projections should be taken with a pinch of salt, however, since the U.N. had finalized its findings before the government collapsed last week. He added that economic projections were based “on economic indicators and not political indicators,” the latter likely rendering those projections overly-optimistic.

The analyst’s remarks came during a news conference to mark the release of the U.N.’s annual economic report, which offers an assessment of global economic trends as well as a forecast for the coming two years based on findings by the U.N.’s economic and social affairs body and regional bodies, such as Escwa.

The report concluded that global economic growth levels will drop slightly in 2011 and 2012, an extension of growth deceleration that began in the middle of 2010. It said that developing countries would continue to lead global growth.

The report lamented that growth levels in the next 24 months would be “far from sufficient” to recover job losses incurred during the global credit crisis that began in 2007. Job losses are estimated to have totaled 30 million between 2007 and 2009.

Neaime said that “the absence of accurate statistics” considerably encumbered research on economic conditions in the Arab world.

He estimates, however, that the unemployment rate in Lebanon nears 16 percent, and believes that employment will improve as growth persists.

He also forecasts that monetary remittances to Lebanon will total $8 billion in 2011. Remittances have long provided a cushion against economic collapse during times of crisis in Lebanon.

Neaime issued words of caution to Gulf Cooperation Council members, urging them to boost oil output or risk hurting other economies, notably their non-oil producing West Asian counterparts. He said that export levels from non-oil producing West Asian economies to Europe and the U.S. would be hurt, since developed countries bear the brunt of high oil prices.

In its latest monthly report that it released Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said that oil prices that have neared $100 a barrel “pose a real economic risk – something of deep concern to producers and consumers alike.”

The I.E.A. faulted Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Ecuador and Venezuela for exacerbating price rises that were initially brought on by heightened global demand.

However, Neaime predicts that Europe will experience a “double-dip recession” this year that will moderate price rises.

Oil prices are expected to range between $60 and $100 a barrel in 2011 with $80 as a price average.

West Asian countries would continue to grow, but not at the rate of pre-financial crisis levels. Oil revenues would continue to drive growth.

However, U.N. analysts observe a surge in non-oil producing activities in Western Asia, particularly inside oil-producing economies. Unemployment rates will fall, but “in a very slight way,” said Neaime, with structural problems continuing to plague employment policies.

Inflation in Western Asia would maintain low levels at around 3.2 percent, representing a considerable slowdown from 2008 when prices were at their peak.

Neaime predicts that non-oil producing countries in the region will continue to face budget restrictions brought on by volatile oil prices.

The U.N. analyst also believes that heightened private consumption in non-oil producing countries will be another important source of growth in the West Asian region.