BEIRUT: In its annual survey on the creditworthiness of 178 countries, Institutional Investor magazine ranked Lebanon in 112th place worldwide and in 13th place among 19 Arab countries in the 2010 survey, as reported by Lebanon This Week, the economic publication of the Byblos Bank Group.
Lebanon ranked in 116th place globally and in 14th place regionally in 2009 and came in 113th place globally and 14th regionally in the 2008 survey. Also, Lebanon came in 31st place among 37 upper middle income countries (UMICs) included in the survey compared to 29th place in 2009.
The survey rates the creditworthiness of countries on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing countries with the least chance of debt default. The ratings are based on input provided by senior economists and sovereign risk analysts at leading global banks and money management and securities firms.
On a global basis, Lebanon ranked ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh and Iran, and came immediately behind Grenada, Tonga and Georgia. Also, Lebanon ranked ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Jamaica and Belarus, and came behind Grenada, Argentina and Venezuela among UMICs. Regionally, Lebanon ranked ahead of Syria, Iraq, Djibouti, Mauritania, Yemen and Sudan; while it came immediately behind Jordan and Egypt.
Lebanon’s rank improved by four spots from the previous survey, constituting the 46th best improvement in the ranking globally and the fifth best regionally. Lebanon received a score of 32.5 points, below the global average of 46.2 points, as well as lower than the Arab average of 49.6 points and the UMICs’ average of 47.2 points. Its score improved by 3.1 points, or 10.5 percent, year-on-year, constituting the third best improvement in the Arab region both numerically and in percentage terms.
Lebanon was one of nine Arab countries whose score improved by one or more points, the amount considered statistically significant for a country. The rankings of 12 Arab countries improved and 7 regressed, while the scores of 14 countries improved and five declined from September 2009.
It added that firm oil prices helped boost the ratings of most of the region’s big producers, as the ratings of Qatar, Oman and Kuwait’s ratings increased; while Dubai’s debt crisis and restructuring affected the UAE’s ratings year-on-year.
Further, Bahrain’s ratings rose by 14 percent year-on-year and posted to the biggest rise in the region, as its banking system had less exposure to Dubai’s debt problems than investors originally feared. Qatar had the best creditworthiness and Sudan had the highest probability of default in the Arab world.
The survey said the global financial crisis and its aftermath have considerably shifted conventional notions about sovereign creditworthiness, as many countries n Western Europe, a region that has been traditionally home to some of the soundest credits in the world, have seen their standing fall over the last year because of their mounting debt problems.
In parallel, emerging market sovereigns, many of which were synonymous with crisis a decade or two ago, have been dramatically upgraded by investors. It noted that European countries posted six of the 10 steepest declines in credit ratings, while many emerging-market countries posted strong gains, reflecting their perceived sound public finances and vibrant economies.
The global average score improved to 46.2 points from 45.7 points a year earlier. Norway replaced Switzerland as the country with the best creditworthiness in the world while Somalia had the highest probability of default.