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OPEC is likely to bring the oil market into balance by the middle of next year, but its production cut looks set to fall short of its stated goal of draining the stockpiles that are depressing prices. The oil market will rebalance "toward the middle of next year," according to Nigeria's Minister of State for Petroleum Emmanuel Kachikwu, bringing an end to more than three years when supply exceeded demand. OPEC's track record shows the group only delivers 80 percent of promised cuts.That scenario would leave largely unchanged the 300 million-barrel global stockpile surplus Del Pino and his colleagues are targeting.OPEC has said its agreement would accelerate the decline of global stockpiles and an optimistic Bloomberg scenario shows the call on the group's supply exceeding its output by 1.2 million barrels a day in third quarter. In a less optimistic scenario, in which OPEC only delivers 80 percent of its promised cut, the group would need non-OPEC rivals to deliver a genuine 600,000 barrels a day cut to make a significant dent in global oil stocks next year.
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