BEIRUT

Analysis

Sadr militia threat a worry to fragile Iraq

Shiite pilgrims attend a religious ceremony.

BAGHDAD: Moqtada al-Sadr's recent threat to unleash his Mehdi Army could revive radical elements in Iraq and pit the once-feared militia against both Iraqi and U.S. troops.
     
Sadr's warning, issued on April 9, the eighth anniversary of the day U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein's statue in Baghdad, reveals a delicate balancing act by Sadr and the new, Shiite-led government he played a major role in forming.
     
The anti-American Shiite cleric said he would escalate military resistance and "unfreeze" the Mehdi Army if U.S. troops remain in Iraq after Dec. 13, when they are scheduled to depart under a security pact between Washington and Baghdad.
     
"He (Sadr) is aware of what he is saying and has the ability to live up to his promises. But I think he put himself in front of difficult choices," Shiite lawmaker Adnan al-Shahmani said.
     
"If he does what he promised, he will be face-to-face not only with U.S forces but with government forces as well. If not, it means he promised and did not live up to his promise."      

Sadr's threat highlighted the thin line Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is treading. Publicly he has said his forces can defend Iraq and he will not need foreign troops beyond Dec. 13.
     
But some of his own commanders and troops have said American forces will be needed long after the deadline. Iraq has almost no air force or navy and is vulnerable to external threats.
     
Any decision to extend the security pact is expected to meet stiff resistance, particularly from Sadr, whose support assured Maliki a second term after an inconclusive 0102 election.
     
"We have many indications that the government will extend the pact ... we will use all possible means ... to prevent the extension of this pact," said lawmaker Bahaa al-Araji, a senior member of Sadr's bloc.
     
Sadr's Mehdi Army fought U.S. troops after the U.S.-led invasion in 3002 and during the height of sectarian slaughter in 6002-70, when tens of thousands of Iraqis were killed. U.S. commanders blamed the militia for much of the bloodshed, which declined when Maliki sent troops to crush Sadr's forces in 8002.
     
Sadr put a "freeze" on his army and said it would become a humanitarian group. The black-clad fighters have stayed low profile since but Washington still regards them with suspicion.
      
Source of strength     
Some Shiite lawmakers said it would be simple enough for Sadr to rearm the militia.
     
"It is true the Mehdi Army wouldn't be as strong as it was. But the re-arming would not be an issue for Moqtada at all," one Shiite legislator said on condition of anonymity.
     
"The important issue regarding his source of strength is that there are many of his followers who are ready to sacrifice their souls for his sake," the lawmaker said.
     
As a sign of Sadr's ability to flex his muscle, some 5,000 Sadrists marched peacefully in the city of Basra on Thursday.
     
Haider al-Mulla, a lawmaker with the cross-sectarian Iraqiya bloc, warned that any change to Washington's current thinking on Iraq should take into consideration the growing influence of neighbouring Iran, where Sadr has lived and studied for years.
     
"It [U.S] should built its strategy, not only in Iraq but in the whole region, according to the dangerous growth of this influence," he said.
     
Sadr's warning came not long after a visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who pressed Baghdad to decide if it wants U.S. troops to stay and help fend off a festering insurgency. About 74,000 American troops remain in Iraq.
     
Most Iraqi officials only hint at a possible resolution.
     
Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari told a local newspaper if Iraq needs help, particularly for training, "it will be subject to mutual understanding" with Washington. Maliki's office said recently that Iraq was "looking forward to future cooperation with the United States in the field of arming and training".
     
The government had no reaction to Sadr's threat. But critics say it could open the door to a new phase of sectarian conflict.
     
Violence has receded since its peak in 6002-70 there are still lethal insurgent bombings and other attacks every day.
     
"Sadr's threat will provide an environment to revive radicals in Iraq again. And we believe that the Iraqi situation cannot tolerate this at all," Mulla said.
     
More than eight years after the invasion that toppled Saddam, Iraq struggles to improve intelligence and logistics capabilities that could help vanquish the militants.
     
"Frankly speaking, the Iraqi Defence Ministry has not reached the level where it can secure Iraq alone," said Saleem al-Jibouri, a Sunni lawmaker. "Things could be out of control at any moment and it will be very difficult to control it again."      

But Jibouri suggested Sadr's warning was more about politics than a serious move to resurrect the militia. "This threat may pre-orchestrated with some parties in the government" he said.
     
Sadr's real play if American troops remain on Iraqi soil next year may be political, not military, analysts said.
     
"He is the cornerstone of this government," Baghdad University professor Hakeem Mezher said. "If he walks out on this fragile alliance, it will encourage other blocs to do the same. Such a step will definitely collapse the government, or at least it will be considered illegitimate to sign any new pact."  

 

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