Summary
Hezbollah's victory in the Syrian rebel stronghold of Yabroud is likely to increase security incidents and widen the sectarian divide in Lebanon, while boosting chances that the party's popular base will be targeted by more terror attacks, analysts and experts said.
Yabroud's fall has likely driven a "significant" number of rebels affiliated with radical groups such as the Nusra Front into Lebanon while failing to secure largely porous borders, they said.
Syrian regime forces backed by fighters from Hezbollah Sunday entered the border town of Yabroud, a key battle in the fight to sever rebel supply lines from Lebanon.
Experts said it would be difficult to estimate the number of fighters fleeing into Lebanon from Yabroud, but a "significant" number are likely to belong to the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS).
Al-Qaeda-linked militant groups already exist in Lebanon. The Nusra Front's Lebanon branch and the Abdullah Azzam Brigades have both claimed responsibility for suicide bombings and rocket attacks against areas associated with Hezbollah, citing the party's involvement in Syria.
Security sources have said in the past that many vehicles used in bombings in Lebanon in recent weeks and months were rigged in Syria, specifically Yabroud, before being smuggled into Lebanon.
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