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Modi on course to be India’s next leader

  • A woman displays the indelible ink mark on her finger after casting her vote at a polling station in Kunwarpur village, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of Jaunpur district, in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, India, Monday, May 12, 2014. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)

NEW DELHI: Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi is set to become India’s next prime minister, four major exit polls showed Monday, with his opposition party and its allies forecast to sweep to a parliamentary majority in the world’s biggest election ever.

Modi, of the Bharatiya Janata Party, electrified the lengthy contest that ended Monday, with a media-savvy campaign that hinged on vows to kick-start India’s economy and create jobs.

Yet much depends on Modi winning enough seats to form a stable government that can push through promised reforms.

Indian elections are notoriously hard to call, and polls taken before and after voting have a patchy track record at best. Results of the ballot are due to be announced Friday.

A Modi victory would be a blow for campaigners who have long maintained he is an autocratic Hindu supremacist responsible for an outbreak of religious riots in his home state, Gujarat, in 2002 in which more than 1,000 people died, mostly Muslims.

Modi, who rose from humble roots as a tea vendor’s son, was shunned by Western nations for years after the bloodshed in Gujarat, where he has been chief minister since 2001.

However, his rise on the national stage forced a rethink among the European Union and the United States, whose ambassadors have met him to patch up relations.

Modi denies the accusations against him, and a Supreme Court inquiry found no evidence to prosecute him.

A majority of 272 seats in Parliament is needed to form a government, although that is often achieved with outside support from regional parties.

India’s staggered voting, spread over five weeks to reach the country’s 815 million voters and move security forces around its varied terrain, ended at 1800 IST (1230 GMT) Monday.

The BJP-led alliance is forecast to win 270-282 seats, according to a poll conducted by research group CSDS for the CNN-IBN TV network.

It forecast just 92-102 seats for the coalition led by the Congress party, which would be the worst result ever for the ruling party led by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.

Congress spearheaded India’s independence movement and has governed the country for over 50 years since freedom from British rule in 1947.

If the BJP and its pre-election allies can win an outright majority, it will be the best showing by a single group since Congress and its allies won 414 seats in 1984, when the assassination of then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi created a swell of public sympathy for the party.

Several national exit polls over-estimated the BJP’s seat share in the last two general elections in 2004 and 2009. The Congress party went on to form coalition governments on both occasions.

“We will only know if this ‘Modi wave’ has really happened after the election results,” said Praveen Rai, a political analyst at CSDS who recently published a report on exit polls. “It still might be more of a media wave, a manufactured wave.”

Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and a crucial political battleground, is particularly tricky for pollsters to forecast because it is a caste-sensitive state where some voters are afraid to speak frankly about who they chose, Rai said.

Another poll released Monday, by Nielsen for ABP News, showed the BJP-led alliance hitting 281 seats. A third, by Cicero for the India Today group, predicted Modi’s alliance would take between 261 and 283 seats, and pollster C-Voter forecast a tally of 289.

One outlier poll, by Today’s Chanakya, showed the BJP emerging with enough seats to rule on its own.

The election reached a climax Monday as Modi sought to secure his ticket in Varanasi, a holy city for Hindus on the Ganges River.

India’s stock markets have in recent days hit record highs on hopes that the exit polls would show the BJP and its allies winning a majority, boosted by both Modi’s pro-business image and the prospect of an end to the coalition governments that have slowed the pace of reform in recent years.

Should Modi fall short of a majority when the results come in on May 16, he will need to strike a coalition deal with some of India’s powerful regional parties.

 
A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on May 13, 2014, on page 11.
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Summary

Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi is set to become India's next prime minister, four major exit polls showed Monday, with his opposition party and its allies forecast to sweep to a parliamentary majority in the world's biggest election ever.

Much depends on Modi winning enough seats to form a stable government that can push through promised reforms.

A third, by Cicero for the India Today group, predicted Modi's alliance would take between 261 and 283 seats, and pollster C-Voter forecast a tally of 289 .

One outlier poll, by Today's Chanakya, showed the BJP emerging with enough seats to rule on its own.

Should Modi fall short of a majority when the results come in on May 16, he will need to strike a coalition deal with some of India's powerful regional parties.


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