With the new year comes the burden of unresolved crises on the economic, social and political levels. Lebanon seems headed toward both further paralysis in the realm of government institutions, and further instability in terms of the ongoing unrest in Syria.

According to diplomatic and political sources, regional and Western intelligence groups will attempt to tamper with Lebanon’s security. These groups will try to export Syria’s security problems to Lebanon through explosions that, unlike in the past, could affect tourism and economic investment.

Lebanon’s intelligence, security and information branches have unconfirmed information that Arab intelligence groups have infiltrated areas in Lebanon. Personnel from these groups have been filming and taking pictures in a Christian area known for its commercial activity. Arab intelligence personnel have also been sent to Beirut and Tripoli to gather information.

In light of this, diplomatic sources say they were recently informed of precautionary measures that Lebanese security forces plan to take. This new strategy will include the following four facets:

First, monitoring for aggressive Israeli military activity near the southern border, as well as Israeli intelligence activity in Lebanon.

Second, following up on armed Palestinian activity inside and outside the camps, including links between groups that reject a comprehensive peace settlement on the basis of a two-state solution.

Third, observing and pursuing the activity of suspicious foreigners who work in Lebanon, as well as foreign intelligence agents who aim to tamper with the country’s security with the goal of striking at the Lebanese status quo and tying its instability to regional and Arab conflicts, especially that of Syria.

Fourth, focusing on reviving the 1991 Treaty of Brotherly Cooperation between Lebanon and Syria. There will also be attempts to amend it to shift its focus from cooperation between individuals to an emphasis on wider strategic cooperation between the two countries in order to truly implement the adage “Lebanon’s security is Syria’s security.”

The Daily Star has learned that during a recent meeting, President Michel Sleiman and Syrian Ambassador Ali Abdel-Karim Ali discussed the countries’ shared security concerns. Sleiman was firm on the importance of maintaining Lebanon’s sovereignty on its northern borders with Syria, and said he was committed to investigating the recent deaths of three Lebanese in Arsal, allegedly by the Syrian Army. He said he wanted to prevent some Lebanese groups from taking advantage of the incident in a bid to harm Lebanese-Syrian relations.

The ambassador said: “Syria is keen that neither it nor Lebanon will be used to target one another.” He added that this will require complete coordination by the two countries to prevent the movement of terrorist groups across their borders.

This meeting emphasizes the fact that one cannot isolate Lebanese security developments from the regional changes which are weighing on an already divided country both politically and in terms of security.

Iranian military maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz and its testing of land and sea missiles are being carefully observed by Hezbollah, who are already considering the possibility that it will need to adapt to future changes in the region.

The explosive Iraqi situation also has a clear impact on the region, including on Lebanon, as there is a possibility that Al-Qaeda members will travel to Lebanon and Syria. This possibility has caused quite a buzz against the backdrop of Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn’s recent statements that Al-Qaeda is present in Arsal.