I am 100 percent certain that there will be a military strike against Iran in the near future. It will be carried out by Israel and/or the United States, possibly with the help and support of other powers.
I am convinced this will happen because I believe that all of the following statements are true.
1. Israel’s leaders have said they won’t allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. This is no threat. They are simply stating their policy.
2. Iran is working to develop nuclear weapons.
3. No amount of sanctions or diplomacy will deter Iran from this goal.
4. Military force is the only way to stop Iran from reaching this goal.
5. Israeli leaders do not think and act like other world leaders. They see themselves as the defenders of the Jewish people, who have already endured one holocaust and countless other acts of barbarism and evil against them.
So while an attack on Iran might plunge the region, and indeed the world, into a state of temporary political and economic chaos, Israel will see this as a small price to pay for stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The leaders of Israel and the U.S. understand the negative ramifications of attacking Iran. But allowing Iran to have nuclear weapons is simply not an option either.
At some point (could be in 2012 or maybe by 2014) Israeli intelligence will inform the Israeli leaders that they are close to a “point of no return” with Iran. Past this point it won’t be strategically feasible to halt their nuclear program. That is the point when Israel will act regardless of who supports them or not.
It’s unfortunate, but war is academic now.
If the U.S. had not wasted its time, blood, and treasure fighting in Iraq in a totally unnecessary war, maybe we could have dealt with Iran sooner and with far fewer negative impacts on the world.