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With the Syrian government on the brink of taking Eastern Ghouta, their biggest victory against the opposition since the fall of Aleppo, the enclave's insurgents each face very different outcomes if evacuated north.Evacuation to Idlib allows the regime to move fighters to an area far from the capital and mitigate the immediate risk the rebels pose.Agreeing to evacuate is particularly difficult for the rebels in Eastern Ghouta, as opposed to the groups in east Aleppo in December 2016 for example, because of the rebels' local ties to the area.There was also less of a local attachment to Eastern Ghouta due to the group's high proportion of foreign fighters.This would offer them a powerful patron that was absent in Eastern Ghouta.An evacuation to Idlib could potentially be most damaging to Jaish al-Islam, however, because of their strong local ties in Eastern Ghouta and having no connections with groups in the north.
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