BEIRUT: With Lebanon due to take over the United Nations Security Council presidency this week, the biggest issue of its month-long tenure is anticipated to be a vote for Palestinian statehood.

Whereas domestic and Arab division over U.N. action in Syria meant that Lebanon last month disassociated itself from a statement condemning President Bashar Assad’s security crackdown on popular protests, Lebanon will likely be free to vote in favor of official recognition of Palestine, analysts told The Daily Star Sunday.

Nadim Shehadi, associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, said that Lebanon could afford to be more direct over the Palestinian vote that it had been in previous Security Council decisions.

“The eternal question that’s related to Lebanon’s presidency and membership of Security Council is how much of it Lebanon representing itself and how much is Lebanon representing the Arab group,” he said. “I think the answer is ambiguous and that’s how it should be, because clear answers sometimes cause trouble and we have diplomats there who know how to maneuver.

“This time it won’t be such a controversial issue because there is more or less Arab consensus on this. There aren’t any serious contradictions and the policy of Lebanon is clear on this: That we support [Palestinian statehood],” Shehadi added.

Lebanon has been an influential player in New York in 2011, as a representative of other Arab states. It voted in favor of NATO intervention in Libya but declined to join in the rest of the international community in condemning the actions of Syrian security forces.

Shehadi said the divided nature of Lebanon’s political scene was to blame for its inconsistent stance on the level of international foreign policy.

“Because of the division in the country, Lebanon’s foreign policy is divided on the matter of Syria, on anything related to Hezbollah’s arms and its Security Council votes reflect that,” he said. “But there are no significant divisions on [Palestinian statehood].”

While the timing of the vote has raised some eyebrows, Elias Muhanna, who runs the Lebanese political blog Qifa Nabki, said that it was unlikely the Palestinian Association had planned to coincide with Lebanon’s tenure as Security Council president.

“It’s sort of coincidental that Lebanon is leading the Security Council when the vote is coming up. I don’t think they planned that. But there is some nice symbolism there and will give Lebanon a chance to champion the Palestinian cause,” he said. “They would vote in favor of statehood no matter what. Europeans are already looking favorable at this; the only opponents are the U.S. and Israel and those who they can pressure.

He added Lebanon was not at risk of being internationally outcast by voting in favor of statehood.

“The U.S. is not going to reprimand Lebanon for voting in favor when there are European players with the idea of statehood,” Muhanna said.

Chafik Masri, an international law professor at the American University of Beirut said he was surprised that the Palestinians were going to the Security Council for a vote, rather than the General Assembly. The U.S., one of five countries that have veto power on Security Council action, has already indicated it will not support Palestine’s bid.

“Whereas the General Assembly has welcomed the notion of a Palestinian state since 1988, there are expected vetoes [in the Security Council],” he said. “Perhaps this is a first step that will be continued through future Security Council sessions.

All three analysts agreed that while Lebanon holding the presidency didn’t technically give it any greater say during voting, the position will lend greater symbolic weight to the stances of Arab states, which are united in support for an independent Palestine.

“It’s still one vote, technically. But the way the vote is decided takes into account that Lebanon represents the Arab group. It’s a balancing act,” Shehadi said.

According to Muhanna, Lebanon voting yes to statehood would “show there is widespread international support for a Palestinian state and that the only opponents are the U.S. and Israel.

“It shows some genuine creativity on the part of the Palestinians to actually move the process forward,” he added.

Officials from across the parliamentary divide have voiced their support for an independent Palestine. Masri said that given the more-than-400,000 Palestinian refugees living in Lebanon – roughly a tenth of the total population – lawmakers in Beirut had special interest in establishing a Palestinian state.

“It is in Lebanon’s interest to be in favor of Palestinian statehood and all Arab nations support it,” he said.