BEIRUT: The latest bomb attack against UNIFIL peacekeepers and the return of anonymous rocket firings into Israel has raised speculation that some of the larger European battalions serving as part of the United Nations Interim Force – the French in particular – may be contemplating reducing troop numbers or pulling out of the force altogether.

While a reduction in the number of French peacekeepers is possible in the longer term, senior diplomatic sources doubt that the French or any other battalion will make significant manpower changes until the completion of a strategic review of the peacekeeping force’s operations.

The review was authorized in August by the U.N. Security Council and is intended to examine ways of allowing the Lebanese Army to “start to take on a greater share of the security responsibilities stemming from Resolution 1701,” according to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in his progress report last month on the implementation of 1701.

The diplomatic sources insist that the strategic review is not intended as a precursor to UNIFIL’s downsizing. Nonetheless, its goal of transferring greater responsibility to the Lebanese Army inevitably will pave the way for the peacekeeping force to begin reducing its strength.

UNIFIL was expanded massively in the wake of the 2006 war from 2,000 soldiers drawn from eight countries to 12,500 from 36 countries along with a maritime component to patrol Lebanon’s coastal waters, the first time the U.N. has operated a naval mission.

During the war, Israel pushed for a NATO mission to replace UNIFIL in south Lebanon. But Israel’s bargaining position was steadily undermined as the war progressed when it grew clear that its army was unable to defeat Hezbollah. The drastic increase in UNIFIL’s numbers and the introduction of a new mandate was the negotiated compromise in the absence of a NATO force.

Still, many analysts agree that there is no need for such a large peacekeeping force in south Lebanon. The most important peacekeeping tool possessed by UNIFIL since Israel’s troop withdrawal from south Lebanon in May 2000 is the telephone.

UNIFIL’s role as interlocutor between the Lebanese and Israelis helped defuse armed flareups and countless tense situations between 2000 and 2006. While the U.N.-delineated Blue Line has remained generally calm in the past five years, the monthly UNIFIL-hosted tripartite meetings at Ras Naqoura continue to play an important role in maintaining calm between Lebanon and Israel.

However, if one side or the other chooses to go to war, UNIFIL’s limitations will quickly become evident. Even though UNIFIL is substantially larger than its previous incarnation, it will have no more success than the pre-2006 version in stopping another war. The only likely difference is that instead of having 2,000 peacekeepers trapped in bomb shelters, you will have six times that number.

Any decision by a troop-contributing country to reduce its presence in UNIFIL will have political ramifications. The French battalion rejigged its role within UNIFIL earlier in the year to defuse friction with local residents.

But the battalion’s strength has remained the same at some 1,300 soldiers – it now composes the Force Commander’s Reserve, a rapid reaction force operating throughout the entire UNIFIL area instead of being limited to a specific sector around Bint Jbeil.

With its soldiers having been the target of the last two bomb attacks, France may be unhappy at the vulnerability of its battalion in south Lebanon – as indicated by Foreign Minister Alain Juppe’s blaming Syria for the latest bombing – but reducing the size of the battalion unilaterally ahead of the conclusion of the strategic review would not be welcomed by the U.N. nor other troop-contributing countries.

The strategic review of UNIFIL is supposed to be completed by year-end, although its conclusions probably will not be delivered to the U.N. Security Council until January or February.

Nevertheless, the French have been here before. Over one month in 1986, four French soldiers were killed and several others wounded in a spate of roadside bomb attacks, shootings and rocket firings. The French withdrew its battalion, which was then centered in Maarakeh near Tyre, reduced its numbers by half and redeployed them to Naqoura to serve as the UNIFIL headquarters defense force.

At the time, Lebanon was mired in civil war and Westerners were being kidnapped in Beirut which contributed to the then French government’s decision to pull out. However, the political environment in Lebanon today is entirely different.

Furthermore, another factor weighing against any imminent troop reductions is the uncertain situation in the region generated by the Arab Spring and especially the violence wracking Syria. The latest roadside bomb attack and Katyusha rocket launch almost certainly will not be the last.

But diplomatic sources say there is a consensus among UNIFIL troop contributors that now is not the time for sweeping changes to the force’s composition. If UNIFIL contingents were to begin planning troop withdrawals, it would undermine the credibility of the peacekeeping force and send all the wrong signals as the Middle East passes through one of its most precarious periods in decades.