BEIRUT: The government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, which has survived several ordeals since its formation in June, is likely to stay in power unless developments in neighboring Syria take a dramatic turn, forcing Lebanese groups to rethink their stances.

International Crisis Group analyst Sahar Atrache said Hezbollah, which along with its allies the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement holds the majority of seats in the 30-member Cabinet, was exerting tremendous efforts to contain tension in Lebanon. “Hezbollah might not be entirely pleased with the current government but it is keen on preserving it to safeguard the status quo in the country,” she said.

The analyst, however, said there will come a point when Lebanon will have to make tough decisions. “Lebanon cannot stick to this passive and neutral position forever,” she added.

While it remains quite premature to predict the outcome of the 9-month-old unrest in Syria, Lebanese from across the political spectrum carefully watch the situation there as their country has long been profoundly affected by the turn of events in its biggest neighbor.

Analysts concur that political factions in Lebanon will remain in a wait-and-see position until circumstances in Syria clear up. “Political life will be quasi paralyzed,” said Atrache, adding that major political players in Lebanon have an interest in keeping the political scene stagnant for the time being.

“The spillover effects have so far been very limited because the Future Movement and Hezbollah are still not in a position right now to decide what’s next although they both expressed radical opinions about events in Syria,” she told The Daily Star.

The advice offered last week by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman to Lebanese politicians about keeping up with the nearing change in Syria widened the gap even more between the components of the political sphere, bitterly at odds over the issue.

Since the turmoil erupted in mid-March, Damascus’ strongest ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, has vowed to stand by Syrian President Bashar Assad against “American-Zionist” schemes.

Conversely, Hezbollah’s rival in Lebanon, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri, has lashed out at the Syrian leadership, expressing full support for Syrian protesters and predicting the imminent downfall of Assad. In near-daily posts on microblogging website Twitter, the former prime minister went as far as describing Assad as a “liar” and called for a joint Arab-Turkish effort to oust him.

Deputy Director of Communications at the Carnegie Middle East Center Robert Naouss said the blatant hostility Hariri has exhibited toward Assad and his circles was based on information and guarantees he received from the Americans and Europeans about the fall of Assad.

“Also,” Naouss added, “Hariri cannot keep silent with regard to what is happening in Syria due to the long-standing rivalry with the leadership.”

Atrache said Hezbollah has so far kept a relaxed demeanor although Syrians accused the Future Movement of fueling the unrest in Syria and providing logistical support to the opposition by sending cash and weapons, “because the party knows that the Syrian claims might be blown out of proportion.”

“Had the Syrian allegations been serious and had the activities of the Future Movement been actually threatening, Hezbollah would have adopted an entirely different approach,” she added.

Despite its withdrawal from Lebanon in the aftermath of the 2005 assassination of Former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Damascus remains the determining influence in Lebanese politics and economy, as Syria constitutes a vital trade route linking Beirut to lucrative Gulf markets.

The Mikati government for its part is struggling to maintain a delicate balance with regards to events in Syria, voting against suspending Syria’s membership in the 22-state Arab League and contesting the body’s decision to impose unprecedented economic sanctions on Damascus.

Lebanon has also refused to take part in an Arab League team of observers to Syria tasked with drafting a ground report on events there.

“Mikati strives to stand on the middle ground,” said Naouss. “His determination to fund the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is a blatant example that he does not want to break [ties] with the West.”

In addition to the acute divergence that surfaced inside the Cabinet – over, for example, reforming the electricity sector and wage hikes – ties between the various blocs making up the government have proved to be problematic.

Hezbollah has struggled in the last six months to mend fences between ministers from the FPM and those affiliated with President Michel Sleiman, Mikati and the National Struggle Front of Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt.

Atrache argued that despite dissonant views within the Cabinet over political as well as economic issues, the latter was strengthened and its life span considerably prolonged when all its components, including Hezbollah, agreed in late November to pay the country’s dues to the U.N. backed court.

“Chances that this government might collapse considerably dimmed when it paid Lebanon’s dues to the STL,” Atrache said. “Currently there is no real reason for it to break down as historically in Lebanon governments fall due to political rather than executive reasons.”

But Mikati’s performance and the diplomatic policies that won him the trust of the United States and European countries are unlikely to safeguard the government from collapse in the event that the situation in Syria takes a turn for the worst.

Thus, despite the Cabinet’s prudent approach, analysts say that the repercussions of developments in Syria, regardless of the shape these might take, will be readily felt inside the Cabinet.

Bilal Y. Saab, Middle East analyst and expert on Hezbollah at the University of Maryland, said Hezbollah’s so far “accommodationist” political strategy has obvious limits.

“When push comes to shove, Damascus is near collapse, and Hezbollah feels cornered, the first casualty will be the Mikati government,” he said.

Naouss said that although the picture in Syria remains highly blurry, political groups in Lebanon were rethinking their positions vis-à-vis the Syrian administration. According to the analyst, Jumblatt was doing the most thinking.

“He has obviously once again cut ties with the Syrian regime but he also knows that Hezbollah will remain strong in the short and the middle terms at least and has heard from U.S. officials that Mikati is staying for now,” Naouss said.

“Once Jumblatt breaks with the government it will fall,” Naouss added. “It is as simple as that.”

Yet while analysts agree that Hezbollah will resort to preemptive action in the event the Syrian administration caves in to popular and international pressure, they diverge over the form this action might take.

Saab said while Hezbollah was on edge and extra sensitive to domestic threats, should it feel threatened, it could take over parts of Beirut like it did in May 2008 following a decision by the government of Fouad Siniora to dismantle the party’s private telecommunications network.

“Hezbollah’s priority will be to switch from managing political feuds within its coalition to preserving its own weapons and survival,” he added.

Atrache and Naouss disagree. The Carnegie expert dismissed the likelihood of Hezbollah repeating the 2008 scenario saying the party knows that this might tarnish their image among Beirutis even more. “Hezbollah might reignite a conflict with Israel to create a new status quo,” he said.

Naouss added that in case the opposition in Syria gains momentum, Hezbollah will realize that this is the beginning of the end for the axis of resistance in the Middle East.

“The party might use its weapons to impose a certain position or status-quo,” he said.

Atrache said political groups, namely Hezbollah and the Future Movement, drew lessons from the events of May 2008, which also contributed to determining the capabilities and scope of maneuver available to the parties involved.

“Hezbollah can be very creative when it comes to political messages and consolidating its position,” the analyst added.