BEIRUT: Lebanon is unlikely to be subjected to international sanctions should it fail to meet a looming deadline to fund the United Nations-backed court probing the assassination of Statesman Rafik Hariri, political and diplomatic sources have told The Daily Star.

It is anticipated that the cutoff date to provide the Special Tribunal for Lebanon $32 million for its 2011 running costs will be missed and, although the threat of U.N. sanctions has been raised, the government does not believe it will be punished.

“The government will not fund the STL … and we don’t expect the Security Council to impose sanctions against Lebanon because of that,” a senior political source close to Hezbollah told The Daily Star.

United States Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman warned Friday that “harsh decisions” would be taken against Lebanon if it failed to come up with the cash.

“We expect Lebanon to completely implement its international commitments because the STL was established upon Lebanon’s request,” Feltman told Al-Arabiya television.

Several other countries and organizations, including the European Union and the STL itself, have raised the idea of financial penalties in the event that the funding deadline is missed. But what officials are saying publicly differs to their true intentions.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who this week told the BBC that he still expected the Cabinet to reach an agreement over funding, visited Washington last month and met with senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.

According to one March 8 official with knowledge of behind-the-scenes talks, Clinton told Mikati that the United States would not seek to impose sanctions on Lebanon.

The accepted international approach to the issue, according to one senior Western diplomat, is to wield the menace of sanctions without actually going through with them.

“No one wants to use sanctions,” the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Daily Star. “The threat of sanctions is worse than the sanctions themselves.”

Western governments are said to be uneasy with the idea of financial restraints further destabilizing Lebanon’s security. There is some anxiety over the possibility of sanctions pressuring Mikati’s government into collapse, inadvertently further empowering Hezbollah.

“We don’t think it’s in the interest of the United States and its allies in the region to impose sanctions and risk having the situation deteriorate dramatically in Lebanon, which would lead to the further weakening of their local allies and increase the threat to their interests,” the senior political source said.

Even if some governments championed the idea of penalties against Lebanon, it is thought that Russia and China would veto any Security Council vote.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, in a recent interview with Al-Manar television, said he was leaving the funding issue to the Cabinet. His party has outright rejected the court, labeling it an “Israeli project” even before four of its members were named as suspects in Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare’s June indictment.

Mikati and Sleiman are known to be keen to force through 2011’s court funding in order to avoid placing Lebanon in conflict with the international community.

Under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1757, Lebanon is obliged to meet 49 percent of the divisive tribunal’s annual running costs. It does not specifically mention the possibility of sanctions. In September, STL President Herman von Hebel set a deadline of 30 working days for Lebanon to provide its share, a date set to pass later this month.

In lieu of Lebanon’s funding, the court has managed its finances through additional provisions from donor nations.

The tribunal said Friday that it expected Lebanon to provide the money, in spite of the prevailing disunity in the Cabinet as the deadline approaches. STL spokesperson Marten Youssef did not rule out any course of action.

“Both the Lebanese prime minister and the president have expressed their commitment to funding the tribunal and we expect these words will be translated into action. Our intention is to officially inquire of the Lebanese government what practical steps have been taken to follow through on their verbal commitments and international obligation to fund the tribunal. Based on their response, the STL will decide what action to take next,” Youssef said.