Rita Daou

Agence France Presse

BEIRUT: Five years after pulling its troops from Lebanon, Syria is reclaiming its sway over its smaller neighbor, analysts say, as witnessed by Premier Saad Hariri dropping his accusation that Damascus was behind his father’s assassination.

“All you have to do is read the history of Lebanon to understand that there are no solutions in Lebanon without Syria,” said Karim Makdisi, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut.

“Officials in Lebanon cannot be against Syria,” Makdisi told AFP. “That is just not an option, and Hariri has realized that.”

Hariri initially accused his then-foe Syria of the February 14, 2005, bombing that killed his father, former Premier Rafik Hariri, and 22 others in Beirut, at a time when Damascus retained a tight grip over its smaller neighbor Lebanon.

But on Monday, the prime minister was quoted as saying that he had erred.

“At some point, we made a mistake,” Hariri told the Saudi-owned daily Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat. “At one stage, we accused Syria … That was a political accusation, and that political accusation is over.”

Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in April 2005, ending its 29-year deployment in the country, and has consistently denied any involvement in the assassination.

Hariri’s retraction, which one Lebanese daily dubbed a “political bomb,” comes amid high tension in Lebanon over pending indictments by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), a UN-backed probe into the assassination.

Preliminary reports by a committee of The Hague-based tribunal concluded there was evidence implicating Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services in Hariri’s murder, but there are no suspects in custody.

The tribunal is reportedly set to implicate Lebanon’s Hizbullah in the murder. The group, has repeatedly warned against any such implication.

Ties between Saudi Arabia, which is close to the Sunni Hariri family, and Syria deteriorated in 2005 but have since warmed, with Saad Hariri himself visiting Damascus several times since taking office last year.

Syrian President Bashar Assad and Saudi King Abdullah made an unprecedented joint trip to Beirut in July in a bid to defuse tensions over reports of the STL’s impending indictment.

Analysts say Hariri’s statement to Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat is yet another bid to contain the current tensions, which have sparked fears of renewed sectarian violence. “This position is directly related to the indictment,” said analyst and columnist Emile Khoury. “It’s a precautionary move before the tribunal issues its charge sheet, which could implicate a Lebanese party, and is rooted in fear of the repercussions of that indictment,” Khoury told AFP.

Makdisi notes the rekindling of ties between Hariri and Assad could also be a step toward bringing Damascus out of international isolation and possibly distancing it from Tehran.

“Hariri is definitely under Saudi pressure to improve ties with Syria … and there seems to be an attempt in the region to break the Syria-Iran-Hizbullah alliance,” Makdisi said.

“Anti-Iranian sentiments run high in the region, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and also stem from the US,” he added.

But Makdisi noted that Hariri stopped short of making any mention of Hizbullah.

“It is true Hariri has never accused Hizbullah, but in light of current tensions he could have gone on and openly said that he did not accuse Hizbullah, as well as Syria,” Makdisi said.

Fadia Kiwan, head of the Political Science Department at Saint Joseph University, argues that one party stands to gain from Hariri’s political metamorphosis: Syria.

“After a difficult phase from 2005 to 2007, Syria’s power is once again consecrated,” Kiwan told AFP. “This will also put Syria’s allies in Lebanon in a position of even more power.

“We should have expected this position since Hariri’s first visit to Syria,” she added. “It’s a natural stop in changing his political path.”