Traders of the online political stock market PredictIt gather at a New York City bar to watch the state's U.S. presidential primary results in New York, U.S., April 19, 2016. REUTERS/Anjali Athavaley
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Erik Duhaime, a passive stock investor, he isn't afraid to short Donald Trump or go long on Hillary Clinton.Predictions markets like PredictIt and a similar venue run by the University of Iowa have emerged as an alternative to polling for election forecasters. PredictIt is bigger than the Iowa Electronic Markets, which has only about 2,000 active traders with access to its political markets.For example, Trump's chances of securing the Republican nomination for the presidential election swung dramatically on the site over the past three months as the primary season progressed. A Trump share shot from 30 cents in early February when he lost to rival Ted Cruz in the Iowa primary to 80 cents a month later when Trump dominated on Super Tuesday. With Cruz and another rival, John Kasich, now out of the race, Trump had risen to 94 cents by Monday.For November's election, though, Trump is trailing on PredictIt with 40 cents against Clinton's 59 cents.PredictIt markets go beyond topics related to U.S. elections.It took until 2008, for the market, called "iPredict" in New Zealand, to get up and running.
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