Clinton poses for a selfie with supporters outside an early voting center Greensboro, North Carolina.
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Many opinion polls show Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in a tight race for the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election, but any one of four factors may make the outcome harder to predict.An average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com shows former Secretary of State Clinton beating Trump, a businessman, by 5.4 percentage points.The percentage of Trump supporters who expect him to win has dropped to 49 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from Oct. 20-24, down from 74 percent from Sept. 16-20 . Clinton supporters' confidence rose at the same time.If that leads to a higher turnout of Trump supporters than of Clinton supporters, it might affect the election outcome.Pollsters caution, however, that the effect of polls on the electorate can only go so far.The gamers were far younger, whiter and more male than the U.S. electorate and predicted a sweeping victory for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 . But when the results were weighted according to voters who turned out in 2008, they predicted President Barack Obama's 2012 re-election.
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