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Samir Geagea has declared his candidacy for the Lebanese presidential election, launching a thousand speculations. The Lebanese Forces leader has pushed his allies into a corner, forcing them to support him. He feels that, even though he may not win, the prospect of a Geagea victory remains far more credible than one by Michel Aoun. Aoun seeks to avoid such a scenario, and Geagea, who also knows the score, is hoping to build momentum for his candidacy before Aoun has had time to react effectively.Geagea may feel that the Druze leader is more inclined to lean toward him than toward Aoun, but that may be a miscalculation.Aoun doubtless knows this and will try to use it to get Jumblatt's votes.The irony is that Geagea's candidacy may benefit Aoun. By turning the election into a choice between the Lebanese Forces leader and Aoun, Geagea may force those on the fence to take sides. And there are no assurances Geagea will win, as Jumblatt's case illustrates. Aoun and Geagea have high expectations, maybe too high.
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