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Whichever one applies, the Army must avoid being drawn into the Syrian conflict and taking one side against the other.For some time the Syrian regime and Hezbollah have sought to integrate the Lebanese Army into their own efforts to crush the rebels in the Qalamoun region, which stretches from Zabadani, near Damascus, all the way up to Qusair, near Homs.What Syria and Hezbollah want is for the Army to cut the rebels' resupply lines into Lebanon, so they can be defeated in Qalamoun.Kahwagi has the presidency in mind, and his choices are not easy ones. If he refuses to implicate the Army in efforts along the border to suffocate the Syrian rebels, he risks alienating Hezbollah, which is his strongest backer to become president (despite the party's claim to support Aoun). On the other hand if he does what Hezbollah and Syria want, he risks splitting the Army along sectarian lines, pushing Lebanon into a civil war, and almost certainly ensuring that Sunnis will reject his presidency. Hezbollah also must know that if the Army were to break apart and Sunnis and Shiites were to go to war in Lebanon, the party's entire Syria strategy would collapse.
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