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It has become obvious in recent days that much of the speculation about whether Saad Hariri would order his parliamentary bloc to vote for Michel Aoun was unfounded.Part of this speculation was heightened by politicians who have no desire to see Aoun become president. Geagea's statement that Aoun, given his past, could not be a consensus candidate added impetus to the argument that Aoun fails to embody Lebanese unity, a president's primary constitutional role.Aoun's election was always a long shot, but he played his cards as well as he could have. While Hezbollah did what it had done in 2007-08 by hinting that it supported Aoun, the reality is that the party's favorite candidate remains Gen. Jean Kahwagi, the Army commander.That imperative is as relevant today as it was several months ago, and any effort by Aoun to undermine it is likely to upset both Hezbollah and the Future Movement.In this context, if Aoun decides to throw a political tantrum, two Maronites in particular could be asked to intervene.As an ally of Hezbollah and Aoun, his refusal to go along with a project that effectively paralyzes the government would have an impact, especially on members of Aoun's bloc close to Frangieh.
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