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The long-term benefit of the Christians may suffer greatly from a continuing presidential vacuum and Aoun would see this if only he looked beyond the presidency to grasp the regional context.To put it bluntly, if Hezbollah loses Assad in Syria, they will seek – indeed will have no alternative but to seek – a fundamental overhaul of the Lebanese system that favors the Shiite community, and the party especially.Many Christians, weaned on the destructive populism of Aoun, have never understood that the Taif agreement is the best protection they have against the reality of demographics. Most convenient, the vacuum is not being perpetuated by Hezbollah and the Shiites. At least publicly this is the work of the Christians themselves, Aoun above all.Aoun has only so many years left, while Hezbollah is planning much further ahead.In other words under a new system where Christians accept a change in representation, so that Maronites, Shiites and Sunnis each control roughly a third of seats and posts in the system (with adjustments for other minorities), to replace the 50-50 ratio of today, Christians would actually be better off.The only way Christians can survive in Lebanon is if they maintain good relations with both Sunnis and Shiites.
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