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The main question – Will Russia dare to invade mainland Ukraine?Putin's main objectives now are the removal of Ukraine's blockade of Moldova's pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria and Ukrainian "federalization" (a euphemism for the Kremlin's back-door strategy to gain control over the country's eastern and southern regions).The Kremlin's actions have undermined European security, delivered a body blow to international law, weakened the nuclear nonproliferation regime by fatally undermining the role of security guarantees for nonnuclear states and raised doubts about the predictability of Russia under its current leaders.Third, the Ukraine crisis will completely transform Russia's relations with the West.Fourth, having annexed Crimea, Russia has lost Ukraine, turning it from friend to foe.Now, having lost Ukraine's industrial and manufacturing base, and with Europe more determined than ever to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies, the Kremlin will need to turn eastward toward China, which will be happy to see Russia remain a resource economy in thrall to it.Isolation of Russia would be counterproductive, merely aggravating its highly developed sense of victimization and possibly turning it into a "rogue" state – truly a nightmare scenario, given that Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal.The Ukraine crisis should not be allowed to obscure the full range of challenges that the world faces.
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