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The Arab Spring has pushed security concerns atop priorities of Arab leaders, who often resort to the prism of conspiracy theories to justify regional upheavals. Unfortunately for conspiracy theorists, the region's instability has more to do with the demographic nightmare faced by Arab countries, which are struggling with high fertility rates and accelerated urbanization trends than with CIA covert operations. Far from being a Machiavelli-like secret manual, the CIA document, which can be viewed at https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/Demo_Trends_For_Web.pdf, identified population trends and projected their possible repercussions on the Arab region.With the exception of Gulf nationals, many Arab youths are unable to find jobs, with low economic growth in their home countries translating into fewer employment opportunities.The widening youth bulge in the developing world could explain political, economic and social turmoil.Arab countries are ill-prepared to face changing population trends. The absence of reforms that adequately integrate youth populations is likely to perpetuate the cycle of political instability and religious wars currently plaguing the Arab region.
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