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The military commander of this breakaway Armenian republic predicted in an interview here Monday that a fragile cease-fire could collapse within days. By that night, Azerbaijani shelling had killed two Armenian soldiers in a northern border town, amid accusations by each side that the other had violated the truce. The "frozen conflict" here, stalemated for 22 years, exploded on April 2, when Azerbaijani forces attacked across the front line. The Azerbaijanis seized ground for the first time since the previous war ended in 1994 . Russia negotiated a quick truce four days later, but as Monday's fighting showed, another all-out conflict seems perilously close.The mostly Armenian population violently seceded from Azerbaijan in a two-year war.The Azeris, judging by their strident social media, feel emboldened by their recent offensive; the Armenians feel isolated and increasingly reconciled to what one former peace activist here described to me as a state of "permanent war".Garen Ohanjanyan, the former peace activist, says this latest war has changed his view about the possibility for reconciliation. After the last war ended, he helped foster dialogue with Azerbaijanis.
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