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Every January, I try to craft a forecast for the coming year.I had been writing for years that unless growing inequality – especially in the U.S., but also in many countries throughout the world – was addressed, there would be political consequences. But inequality continued to worsen – with striking data showing that average life expectancy in the U.S. was on the decline.Trump seems hell-bent on having a trade war.Trump may have reason to think he could win; after all, China is more dependent on exports to the U.S. than the U.S. is on exports to China, which gives the U.S. an advantage.The Chinese may be in a better position to respond to U.S. attempts to inflict pain on them than the U.S. is to respond to the pain that China might inflict on Americans.Will it be the U.S., where ordinary citizens have already suffered for so long, or China, which, despite troubled times, has managed to generate growth in excess of 6 percent?Trump might like to repeal the ordinary laws of economics, as he goes about his version of voodoo economics.
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