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My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will thrive, but that the price of bitcoin will collapse.If you haven't been following the bitcoin story, its price is up 600 percent over the past 12 months, and 1,600 percent in the past 24 months. China's government, concerned about the use of bitcoin in capital flight and tax evasion, has recently banned bitcoin exchanges. Japan, on the other hand, has enshrined bitcoin as legal tender, in an apparent bid to become the global center of fintech.Japan, the world's third-largest economy, has an extraordinarily high currency-to-income ratio (roughly 20 percent), so bitcoin's success there is a major triumph.It is folly to think that bitcoin will ever be allowed to supplant central-bank-issued money. It is one thing for governments to allow small anonymous transactions with virtual currencies; indeed, this would be desirable. Were bitcoin stripped of its near-anonymity, it would be hard to justify its current price.I have no idea where bitcoin's price will go over the next couple years, but there is no reason to expect virtual currency to avoid a similar fate.
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