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The U.S. economy is growing, inflation has finally hit the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, and unemployment is quite low – and at an all-time low for African-Americans and Hispanics.models predict that a strong economy favors the party in power, and that a weak economy dooms it to crushing losses. And yet, with the economy in its best condition in over a decade, most polls show a substantial Democratic Party lead in the run-up to the 2018 midterm congressional elections this November. Some even foresee a "blue wave" in which Democrats also retake the Senate, despite having to defend far more seats than the Republicans. In several recent special elections, Republicans have held on by far narrower margins than in past elections for the same congressional seats.While economic distress may harm the party in power, economic strength might not help it as much as in the past.If Republicans retain the House and Senate, the pro-growth tax and regulatory reforms enacted thus far will be sustained, and perhaps even expanded.Though divided governments sometimes produce policy compromises and preside over a strong economy, it is hard to imagine that happening if Democrats retake either or both chambers of Congress.
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