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Now, nearly a year later, my three decades of experience in global financial markets leads me to believe that the economic situation is not quite as straightforward.One key indicator is South Korea's monthly trade data.As I suspected a year ago, the slowdown in global trade in past years probably stemmed from the euro crisis and falling commodity prices and would thus prove temporary. All told, forecasts projecting global GDP growth of 4 percent or more for 2018 seem credible.While many oft-cited concerns in 2017 turned out to be unwarranted, that doesn't mean economic risks have disappeared.In contrast to a year ago, people are increasingly acknowledging that the global economy is stronger than they had thought. To be sure, if the global economy is truly returning to relatively high and stable growth, monetary-policy tightening need not be harmful – and may even be less harmful than waiting for stronger evidence of inflation to emerge.Still, and more important, as long as financial conditions don't tighten excessively as a result of today's cyclical strengthening, global economic performance for the rest of this decade could end up being more robust than anyone would have imagined just a few years ago.
of fiscal policy
as feasible option
Unpredictable Trump’s one-way economy
Does the Group of 20 still
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