Summary
As the United States and Iran face off in the Gulf, their asymmetric conflict risks spiraling out of control.
The spiral was arguably set in motion in May 2018, when the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions.
Because Iran doesn't have the capacity to respond in kind to the U.S., it had to get creative.
By neutralizing the threat of a sanctions "snapback" included in the nuclear deal, the U.S. has raised the risk of violations by Iran that bring it closer to developing nuclear weapons.
Just as the U.S. has depleted the potential of sanctions, Iran may have depleted America's patience for its asymmetric tactics.
When the U.S. and Iran have played all their cards in the current game, a more dangerous one is likely to begin.
These include, first and foremost, direct talks between Iran and the U.S., which the Europeans seem to be working to facilitate.
A diplomatic solution to the tensions between Iran and the U.S. will also require the involvement of Iran's neighbors.
The situation is increasingly tenuous, and it could get much worse -- potentially leading to a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran -- before diplomacy can make it better.
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