On January 20, the Obama foreign policy team will inherit from the Bush administration an increasingly unstable Arab world. The more than 300 million Arabs in 22 countries, with the rare exception of a few Gulf nations, are lagging behind most of the world and are becoming vulnerable to unrest.
Presiding over anemic economies and poor educational systems, entrenched Arab leaders have failed to educate their citizens to participate effectively in a globally competitive economy. Average unemployment is hovering around 15 percent, higher than all other regions in the world except Sub-Saharan Africa. About 30 percent of all Arabs are believed to be illiterate. These facts describe a potentially scary scenario for the not-so-distant future, especially when one adds to the mix the fact that 60 percent of the region's population is under 30 years of age.
Immediate visionary action by the Obama administration will be necessary to help reverse these trends. The macro, one-size-fits-all US policy for the Arab world has proven ineffective. This policy treated the region as a single unit and lacked the subtlety necessary to understand that this one Arab world is in fact composed of many countries, each with its own unique set of challenges. To be successful, the Obama team should create a policy that allows for state-by-state analysis, emphasizing job creation and education and political reform.
When George W. Bush took office in January 2001, the Arab-Israeli dispute was the dominant issue in the Middle East requiring American attention. As Bush prepares to leave office, that dispute is nowhere close to resolution, of which the latest escalation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is yet another reminder. Additionally, there is the costly war in Iraq, the rise of Iranian influence, and the growth of Islamic fundamentalism. Things have gone from bad to worse in just a few years. Rather than being a catalyst for positive regional change, regime change in Iraq has undermined the dream of Arab secular nationalism, created a political vacuum ripe for religious extremists, and enabled Iran to take advantage of its dysfunctional and vulnerable regional neighbors.
The new administration has inherited a Middle East that desperately needs help - and jobs. Most Arab governments have failed to produce the labor market necessary for sustaining their growing populations. The public sector, usually the largest sector and principal employer in most Arab countries, is already bloated with excessive labor. Most needed are private-sector jobs, to employ Arab youths. In order to create those jobs, Arab market systems need to be improved.
Recent political and economic reforms in the Arab countries have been cosmetic and symbolic at best. They have primarily been aimed at demonstrating to the global community that progress has been made. In many of the countries in the past, dissidents were sent straight to jail. Today the dissidents are put on trial, but still sent to jail. With public knowledge of the American use of waterboarding in Guantanamo and elsewhere, why would Arab leaders promote human rights and political reforms? The closing of Guantanamo will send an important message that torture will not be tolerated by the Obama administration.
The war on terror has increased collaboration between the United States and many Arab countries, but this improved relationship has impacted negatively on American efforts to promote democracy. In return for assistance with the fight against Islamic fundamentalism, political reform is no longer as urgent. Realpolitik has caused a shift in priorities.
The Obama team must address political and education reform immediately. While both are long-term strategies requiring time before there is meaningful impact, they are both essential to start. The World Bank, along with numerous other international organizations, has confirmed that Arab youth receive low-quality public education. This poor quality is spilling into higher education institutions where students are taught what to think instead of how to think. Investing in and reforming education must become requirements imposed on Arab nations, especially those that receive American aid.
There are a few hot spots around the world that require immediate American and international attention. The Middle East is one of them. For a change, the Obama administration could set in motion the long-term changes Arab leaders must enact in their countries. With determined and clear US soft power policy, change is possible. The status quo should not be an acceptable option.
Raja Kamal is associate dean at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.