Some groups are issuing denials. Others are expressing condemnation, perhaps with a statement of firm resolve tossed in. Still others are launching accusations, whether direct or indirect, and possibly adding a warning or dire prediction. And other groups make repeated pleas for calm, or remain silent.

These categories cover most of the local, regional and international actors that have reacted to a string of shadowy incidents this year in south Lebanon. The latest, a rocket launch by “unknown elements” that failed to even reach the target by getting across the border, landed in the village of Houla, highlighting how primitive the equipment and attempt likely was.

However, the clumsiness of the latest incident should not obscure the considerable danger involved.

The launch of rockets across the border has been one constant in 2011, along with several bombings targeting UNIFIL peacekeeping troops in the south. Also, the phenomenon of “anti-alcohol” intimidation or violence recently moved suddenly from Palestinian refugee camps and southern villages to the city of Tyre, and seemingly close to UNIFIL troops.

While there is no absolute certainty about the identity of the perpetrators of these acts, the situation is certainly dangerous. Whether it is a domestic or foreign party, whoever is behind the violence is playing with fire.

The authorities must make every effort to determine who is responsible, make this public, and punish the groups involved, while providing a mechanism to end the attacks.

If, as usual, the issue is swept under the rug, it will likely return. Condemnations without action by the competent authorities result in merely ignoring the problem. The party sending the “pinpoint” messages, which usually take the form of a low-grade rocket attack, or a bombing that often wounds a few people rather than killing many, might think it is conducting a controlled experiment. But as a turbulent year of Arab uprisings draws to a close, it should be remembered that any seemingly minor spark could lead to a conflagration in a tense region.

The parties responsible for the various “messages” are deceiving themselves if they think otherwise. On paper, most actors in the region are opposed to waging war; foreign actors are busy grappling with economic problems that are continent- or world-wide. But if events in the Middle East suddenly spins out of control, they will act, and more likely react, to the developments. There is no telling how things will develop, as countries and parties might be facing internal challenges, but would not mind distraction elsewhere, to buy time.

The simple fact is this: Three groups are responsible for keeping South Lebanon under control – the Lebanese Army, UNIFIL and Hezbollah.

Each has the capability to bring the situation under control, and identify what is going on; they can make their findings known covertly to the authorities, but in the end, something must be done to ensure that the actions of freelancers, or the sides that animate them, do not bring a sudden and most unappealing spate of mass violence. It could erupt at any moment, even as the result of a single, primitive rocket launch.