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SATURDAY, 26 MAY 2012
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Editorial  
Moscow’s card
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seen during his meeting with Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheik Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifain in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seen during his meeting with Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheik Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifain in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

After slamming the West’s reaction to Syria as “hysterical,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Damascus Tuesday, allegedly to convince Syrian President Bashar Assad to speed up the pace of reform and to embark upon dialogue with the opposition.

With Saturday’s veto of the draft U.N. Security Council resolution, Russia, along with China, has now proven in the clearest terms that they are the few remaining friends of the Assad regime.

Lavrov’s visit to Syria must be used to apply genuine pressure on the regime. It is also Russia’s last chance to prove to the world that its use of the veto was not driven by selfish motives, or as a means to up negotiating power with the Americans, but rather that it was a clever diplomatic move aimed at pressuring Assad by a different means.

The volume of killings in Syria is no secret, having skyrocketed in recent days. This increase is a sign that the regime in Damascus is determined to prevail.

But, as international pressure on the regime increases, with the U.S. announcing Monday the closure of its embassy in Damascus, and Britain withdrawing its ambassador for talks, Russia must realize that despite the failure of the West at the Security Council, international efforts to stop the killings in Syria will not cease.

Just as with the level of killings, both protests and army defections are only increasing by the day. For Syrians, the simple routines of daily life are becoming ever more complicated, from the social to the economic.

More and more killings will not put an end to any of these problems, it will only further inflame the protesters. Unless the regime has decided to kill half of the entire population, the opposition will become ever more determined.

At the same time, the government will not give in, knowing that if it were to do so, this would equate to an end to the Syrian Baath party and the reign of the Assad family.

Lavrov’s visit to Damascus, therefore, will provide Russia its last opportunity to send a creative message to Assad, urging him to put an end to the killings.

However the visit may already be too late to prevent what many have been warning of for several months. Civil war, it seems, has already arrived in Syria, for if this is not civil war, then what is?

It is also impossible to deny the reality that civil war will not be confined to Syria’s borders: With so many parties and elements at play, any short term solution to the crisis will be incredibly complex.

Lavrov today has the opportunity to act on behalf of a responsible super power, using his sway with Assad, and minimizing the ever increasing bloodshed, before it becomes too late even for Russia to remain immune to the conflict, which threatens the entire region, and its partners further afield.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on February 07, 2012, on page 7.
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