It was described as an expression of frustration or a tactical ploy; magnanimity or maneuvering, depending on the commentator. However, one thing is still certain; the decision taken by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday not to run in elections planned for January has changed the game dramatically. Abbas’ decision, he later explained, was motivated by his disappointment with efforts by the United States to halt Israeli settlement construction, which he has declared on numerous occasions to be imperative before any peace talks. Abbas said that he felt “cheated” by the US after it retreated from its earlier call for a complete settlement freeze, to urging talks regardless of such a move.

While the prospect of an Abbas departure has caused much consternation in Israel and the United States, which often referred to him as their only viable “partner for peace,” the situation now unfolding is a product of their own making. Obstinacy on the part of Israel over the most basic of Palestinian requirement of a freeze in settlements, even after Abbas had made numerous concessions at the expense of his own domestic popularity, has forced their “partner” to say enough is enough. 

On the surface at least, the prospects for a lasting peace look as dim as ever, but if Abbas is to follow through on his words and in turn raise the possibility of a new leadership for the Palestinian Authority, a much needed shot of adrenaline could boost the Palestinian cause.  

Abbas suited the Israelis and the US because of his moderate stance, and because he was willing to make concessions. But he was constrained at home by his lack of results, allegations of corruption and more recently by his decision not to fully support the Goldstone Report – this in particular was a barrier in mending the rift between Fatah and Hamas when the latter postponed inter-Palestinian reconciliation talks as a result. Moreover, Hamas has viewed Abbas as an illegitimate president since he extended his mandate without elections; his departure could significantly improve chances of reconciliation between the two groups.  

Many are already discussing possible replacements for Abbas: Marwan Barghouti – a popular Fatah figure currently imprisoned by Israel – being the most prominent. Irrespective of who is to take over, the chance for Palestinians to elect a new, perhaps less divisive leader, could bolster their negotiating position in any peace talks. 

If the result of this whole episode is for Israel and the US to realize that even a moderate can be pushed only so far, then many would argue that Abbas’ decision was worthwhile. If it is to lead to new elections and a more galvanized and united Palestinian people, even more so.