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Most economic forecasters have largely shrugged off recent advances in artificial intelligence (for example, the quantum leap demonstrated by DeepMind's self-learning chess program last December), seeing little impact on longer-term trend growth.In any case, the focus of economists' pessimism is long-term growth.It is hard to know who is right: Neither economists nor scientists have a great track record when it comes to making long-term predictions. But right now, and leaving aside the possibility of an existential battle between man and machine, it seems quite plausible to expect a significant pickup in productivity growth over the next five years.Over the past 10-15 years, all three have been dismally low in the advanced economies.Similarly, global investment has collapsed since the 2008 financial crisis (though not in China), lowering potential growth. And measured productivity growth has declined everywhere, falling roughly by half in the U.S. since the tech boom of the mid-'90s. Still, the best bet is that AI and other new technologies will eventually come to have a much larger impact on growth than they have up to now.
of a progressive consumption tax
And what about Rochester?
The case for a World Carbon Bank
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